The survey notes that the global economy contracted by around 4.5 percent in 2020, the biggest fall in global activity in several decades. Having recovered from lockdown-imposed weakness in the first half of the year, many economies again faced weakness as a second wave of COVID infections triggered renewed lockdowns. The survey envisions a steady recovery this year, but continued uncertainty limits the bounce in consumer and busines confidence, with pre-crisis output not being reached until mid-2022. The survey also indicates that the Global orders, employment and capital investment indices recorded a further modest improvement, but still point to activity well below the pre-crisis level in the fourth quarter of 2019. The “fear” indices which means the concern about customers and suppliers going out of business, edged lower in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020 but remain elevated, clearly underlining the extreme uncertainty in the global economic outlook at the start of 2021. At the same time, inflation concerns remain negligible with concern about costs staying close to an all-time low. “Last year was the worst for the global economy for several decades,” said Warner Johnston, Head of ACCA USA. “2021 will see recovery, but precisely when and how strong it will be is very uncertain. We anticipate a weak start, followed by a recovery gathering momentum through the second half. Much depends on the evolution of the COVID virus and variants relative to the progress of vaccination programs, and there is great uncertainty surrounding these developments.” Agreed with this points, Raef Lawson, IMA vice president of research and policy analysed the policy responses to the pandemic that have left public finances of most economies in a perilous state with budget deficits in the range of 10 percent to 15 percent of GDP in many countries with debt to GDP ratios well over 100 percent. In North America, confidence dropped in Q4, having jumped by the most on record in Q3. …
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