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Editor’s note: Luong Hoai Nam, former deputy head of the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, says the current visa policy is discouraging international tourists from visiting the country in his op-ed exclusively written for Tuoi Tre (Youth) newspaper. Nam’s piece of writing is particularly worth noticing at a time when Vietnam reported its tenth straight drop in tourism arrival number in March, according to the VNAT statistics. The Vietnamese tourism visa policy, especially the complicated procedures to get a visa, is one of the import reasons why the number of international tourists visiting Vietnam did not increase but continuously shrank over the past time. Local tourism authorities attributed the falling number arrivals in ten months in a row to the plunges of the Russian and Chinese markets, while the growths of other markets could not offset for such losses. Such explanation, to me, is only partially correct. Reality is that the tourism visa policy is a very significant hurdle for the growth of international tourism in Vietnam. Complex visa rules; short exemption list With nearly eight million international visitors a year, including those who come by road via the borders with China, Laos, and Cambodia and those who arrive for business and investment purposes, the number of tourist arrival to Vietnam is only equal to that of a single destination in Thailand, Pattaya. And it is lower than that of Phukhet. Thailand rakes in US$60-65 billion from about 25 million international tourists it welcomes on an annual basis. The tourist arrivals of Hong Kong and Singapore are triple the figure of Vietnam. In my opinion, one of the main reasons vacationers do not choose Vietnam is the country’s visa policy, especially its complicated procedures. Holidaymakers do not mind paying a few dozens of U.S. dollars to get a visa, but they are indeed discouraged by complicated formality, and will thus travel to where they can enjoy a visa …

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Though the automobile market has become big enough for manufacturers to step up domestic production, industry policies remain unencouraging. With 300,000 cars sold in 2020, Vietnam has surpassed the Philippines to become the fourth largest automobile market in the region, according to AAF (ASEAN Automotive Federation). Thailand led the region with 792,146 cars sold in 2020, while Indonesia was in the second position with 600,000 cars sold. The third position belonged to Malaysia with 550,000 cars. The figures were 296,634 for Vietnam and 223,793 for the Philippines. The AAF report was prepared based on figures from the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer Association (VAMA). It did not count Hyundai and VinFast cars sold in Vietnam. If the cars of the two brands are counted, the figure would be over 400,000 products. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a big impact on the entire world market and caused sales in Southeast Asia to decrease sharply. However, the effects to the Vietnamese market were insignificant. Since the government of Vietnam decided to reduce the vehicle registration tax by 50 percent, the car sales only slightly decreased, which helped Vietnam become the fourth largest automobile market in the region. Analysts predict that Vietnam will surpass Malaysia in the future to jump to the third position. In general, the development of the automobile market depends on three factors – scale and population structure; the average income per capita; and average number of cars per 1,000 people. In Vietnam, motorization begins when the average GDP per capita reaches $3,000 per annum. The average number of cars per 1,000 people is still low, while the middle class, or the major clients of personal cars, is expanding rapidly. In a report released recently, SSI commented that Vietnam’s automobile market is now large enough to step up domestic manufacturing. Six manufacturers hold 90 percent of the market, including Truong Hai, TC Motor, VinFast, …

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The new US administration, and its subsequent decisions regarding US-China trade, will have a big effect on global stock markets The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the VN-Index by the end of 2020 was 17.6x, 10 per cent higher than the 5-year average of 16.0x. Valuations are no longer low, but still much lower than the 22x in early-2018, when the VN-Index reached its historical high of 1,200 points. Vietnam’s stocks are still priced low compared to other Asian countries and are buoyed by economic growth prospects, corporate profits, and return on equity in 2021, which are forecast to outperform other markets. Furthermore, stock market valuations continue to be attractive for long-term investors, especially foreigners. According to Bloomberg’s Consensus Economics, P/E is forecast at around 14.0x for 2021, much lower than the historical peak of 35x. This means that valuations are still low and opportunities remain open for medium- to long-term investors. We project the target P/E ratio to move within the 17-20x interval. Markets will be less volatile on the assumption that no unexpected events occur. Meanwhile, investors are willing to pay a higher price, based on the prospects of economic and corporate profit recovery. These expected P/E valuation intervals make us believe that there is no risk of an asset bubble occurring in 2021, even though the market has been consistently exceeding expectations for a while. As of last June, the net profit growth of listed companies on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) declined around 15.5 per cent on-year after sales fell by 11.8 per cent on-year. The decline in domestic and export demand was accompanied by a sharp decline in the ageing of inventory and slump in the tourism sector due to the impact of the pandemic. Overall profit growth was negatively affected by sectors such as utilities, energy, transportation, and real estate. By contrast, banks became the bright spot in last year’s first …

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