The Hanoitimes - Vietnam would be among four economies hardest hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, behind Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong (China). The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth to slow to a 7-year low of 5.96% in 2020, indicating a less optimistic outlook compared to its assessment one week ago, local media reported. Data: MPI. Chart: Ngoc Thuy. Previously, the MPI predicted Vietnam’s GDP in 2020 to grow 6.09% in case the Covid-19 (nCoV) is contained by the end of the second quarter, representing a 0.7 percentage points lower than the target set by the National Assembly and nearly one percentage point compared to 2019. The MPI suggested Vietnam would be among four economies hardest hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, behind Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong (China). The latest prediction of the MPI is similar to those of domestic economists. Pham The Anh, chief economist at the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), told VnExpress that Vietnam’s economic growth is predicted to be shaved off by one percentage point, while ANZ predicted a decrease of 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter due to the epidemic. The MPI also estimated Chinese arrivals coming to Vietnam would decline by 2.3 million if the outbreak is controlled by the end of the second quarter, while those from other countries are likely to decrease between 50% and 60%. “As Chinese tourists spend an average of US$743.6 each, and international tourists of US$1,141, a loss of US$5 billion would be incurred if the epidemic persists to the end of June,” said the MPI in its report. Preliminary assessment from the Vietnam Tourism Advisory Board (TAB) said the damage in the first quarter could be up to US$7 billion and exceed US$15 billion until the end of the second quarter. With tourism under pressure from the outbreak, the aviation industry is set to face a similar fate. Before the epidemic, 11 Chinese …
[Read more...] about Vietnam’s 2020 GDP growth predicted to slow to 7-year low