Emerging market debt

Deputy governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Dao Minh Tu has said that bad debts are climbing for both credit organisations and the wider economy. "It is an ongoing challenge to manage bad debts and banking activities will be seriously affected over the next few years," said Tu. He said that the woes would be revealed more clearly as the ratio of on-balance-sheet bad debt continues to grow due to inflation and interest rate rises. At the end of 2022, bad debts were classified based on the groups of borrowers and economic issues like recovery and inflation curbing. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, said that on-balance-sheet bad debt could reach 2.3-2.5 per cent and gross bad debt could hit 6 per cent in 2023, rising into 2024. As the regulations on unchanged debt groups in Circular No.14/2021/TT-NHNN expire, economic recovery could suffer. According to the SBV, at the end of 2022, the ratio of … [Read more...] about Bad debts continue to soar at commercial banks

The latest move from the Fed marked eight consecutive rate hikes since March 2022, with no signs that it has reached the peak of its hike journey. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, a financial expert from the Vietnam Association of Financial Advisers, predicted that a rate hike of 25 percentage points was anticipated. Thinh stated that, in general, the pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate from the Fed’s interest rate hike is not significant. Pressure on to support new economic growth, photo Le Toan Dr. Le Dang Doanh, former head of the Central Institute for Economic Management, also believes that the Fed’s interest rate rise is targeted to contain inflation in the US, since inflation has begun to fall from the previous year’s low level. The USD price will adjust as a result. “A change in the price will influence the exchange rate between it and VND, impacting import-export businesses and foreign-invested enterprises,” said Doanh. On the other hand, deposit interest … [Read more...] about Pressure on to support new economic growth

Foreign tourists visit Vietnam (Photo: VNA) HCM City (VNA) - Despite near-term trade headwinds, tourism has emerged as a source of growth for Vietnam to mitigate the challenges ahead in 2023, according to the “Vietnam at a glance” report released by HSBC on February 6. The report stressed that January’s data showed Vietnam continues to face difficulties in trade and the inflationary pressure of increasing prices. However, in spite of slowing trade, there are still pockets of resilience in Vietnam’s economy, and tourism will be a key one in 2023. Following its re-opening last March, Vietnam’s domestic tourism has been soaring, easily surpassing its 2022 target of 60 million to over 100 million tourists. Meanwhile, international tourism, which previously accounted for 60% of tourism receipts, saw a tepid recovery post COVID-19, with tourist arrivals reaching 3.6 million, only 20% of 2019’s level. But there are good reasons to expect a more meaningful recovery, in … [Read more...] about Tourism – a source of growth in Vietnam for 2023: HSBC