Economists

"Around April or May, China will be more confident about its open-door policy, and this will creat opportunities for Vietnam’s export and tourism," said Nguyen Xuan Thanh of Fulbright University Vietnam. Nguyen Minh Cuong, ADB’s chief economist, said after the second quarter China’s reopening would affect the global economy, including Vietnam’s in various areas, including agriculture, services and trade. Can Van Luc, chief economist of local bank BIDV, said the reopening is expected to push global GDP growth up by 0.1 percentage point, and Vietnam would also benefit from it But the positive impact would not be immediate since China might experience policy "chaos" in the early stages, the economists agreed. An important event would be the potential return of Chinese tourists to Vietnam in the second half of this year, helping drive economic growth, investment fund VinaCapital said. Vietnamese airlines resumed regular flights to China on Jan. 8 after a long hiatus due to … [Read more...] about China reopening to impact Vietnam economy from mid-2023: economists

"We expect China’s re-opening to boost Vietnam’s GDP growth by over 2% points next year, driven by the full resumption of Chinese tourist arrivals in the second half of 2023," said Michael Kokalari, chief economist of investment fund VinaCapital, adding that China accounted for one-third of Vietnam’s pre-Covid total tourist arrivals. Kokalari expects the number of foreign tourist arrivals to climb more than 50% over pre-Covid levels in 2023 based on the assumption that Chinese touriss fully recovers in the second half of next year. The pace of recent developments in China point to a possible faster full resumption of Chinese tourist arrivals, which could lead to an even larger contribution to Vietnam’s GDP growth next year than currently expected, he added. Starting Jan. 8, China dropped most Covid testing requirements, scrapped contact tracing and resumed immigration at border gates with Vietnam after three years of imposing various levels of restrictions to curb the spread of … [Read more...] about Vietnam to gain from China reopening: economists

Singapore’s inflation remains high in 2023: Economists (Photo: VNA) Singapore (VNA) – Based on latest data from Singapore ’s Ministry of Trade and Industry and Industry (MTI), many economists have forecasted that the country’s inflation will remain high in 2023, despite signs of reduction from global price pressures. In 2022, overall inflation came in at 6.1%, up from 2.3% a year ago, while core inflation, which excluded accommodation and private transport, came in 4.1% year on year, an increase of 0.9% year on year. Singapore's overall inflation is forecast at 4.5-5.5% in 2023, while core inflation is forecast at 2.5-3.5% after excluding impacts of increase in Goods and Services Tax (GST). Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the MTI have also warned about risks that could lead to high inflation rates being “persistent than expected”, especially after China reopened its market. However, both MAS and the MTI are still optimistic about the second half of … [Read more...] about Singapore’s inflation remains high in 2023: Economists

Entering 2023, inflation has emerged as the top concern for the Central Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Specifically, inflation was predicted to be above 5 per cent within January. As China’s economy is now fully open, global pricing remains unpredictable, while the US Federal Reserve is still on a path of raising and modifying interest rates. A transaction office of VietinBank (Photo: VNA) “Thus, the SBV is under pressure to implement suitable monetary policies,” said banking expert Nguyen Chi Hieu. BIDV chief economist Can Van Luc also said, “Amid the global economic downturn, some countries may fall into a short-term recession. In this context, Vietnam’s GDP growth is expected to slow in 2023 compared with the high base level of 2022.” However, the country maintains a good level of GDP growth at 6-6.5 per cent as a base scenario, Luc said. Exports are expected to rise by 8-10 per cent, while domestic and foreign investment is expected to rise by about 8 per cent. He … [Read more...] about Economists cautious on interest rate adjustments

Between VND150-200 trillion ($6.4-8.5 billion) in bonds are set to mature this year, and if the bond market is left to self-regulate, systemic risks could spread to the banking sector and the entire financial market, Cuong told VnExpress in an interview. Although Vietnam concluded 2022 with a strong post-pandemic recovery, several financial problems plagued the economy last year, among them bond market issues . As there were many high-profile arrests due to alleged misconduct in bond issuance, companies prematurely redeemed VND210.57 trillion worth of their own bonds last year, up 46% from 2021. Although the market could be left to fix its own problems, Cuong said that it is recommended that the government intervenes with policies to ensure post-pandemic recovery, as one problem in the market could shake the market in a major way this year. He added that in the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. government initially let the market corrects itself, but after Lehman Brothers … [Read more...] about Vietnam government should intervene in bond market: ADB economist

Improving capital adequacy ratios can help banks manage risks more effectively, photo Dung Minh At a conference to review work and business activities in 2022 and set tasks for 2023 on January 8, Tran Minh Binh, chairman of VietinBank’s Board of Directors, revealed that it had been approved to retain all 2021 profits to create conditions to improve financial resources for sustainable business development. Earlier in January, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued a decision on amending the content of charter capital in the licence of SHB, after the bank implemented a plan to issue shares for a charter capital increase last year. The governor of the SBV made an amendment to allow SHB to issue an increased charter capital of $1.3 billion, up from the previous $1.1 billion. Similarly, the SBV has decided to amend the content of the charter capital prescribed for Nam A Bank and MSB. The charter capital is $361 million for Nam A Bank and $847 million for MSB. Towards the end of … [Read more...] about Lenders elevate charter capital moves

I'm relieved that the country has had a year of strong recovery despite the world being plagued by countless disasters: wars, epidemics, natural disasters. The global economy, which was severely damaged after two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, was further impacted by a military conflict that has resulted in many consequences: an energy crisis, a food crisis, broken supply chains, soaring prices and global inflation (reaching 8.8% in 2022, up from just 4.7% in 2021). The fight against inflation took place in most countries using traditional tools such as raising interest rates and reducing the money supply through both fiscal and monetary policies. This led to high interest rates, sharply fluctuating exchange rates, and high inventories. People and businesses also felt insecure and started tightening their spending and investment. Global economic growth is therefore estimated at about 3% in 2022, down sharply from the previous year's growth rate of 6%. In this context, there are … [Read more...] about Vietnam’s GDP growth: relieved and concerned

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.9% in October-December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday, slower than the third-quarter's 3.9% pace. The rate still exceeded the second quarter's 0.4% expansion and market expectations of a 1.8% gain. On a quarterly basis, GDP stalled, coming in at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September. Beijing last month abruptly lifted its strict anti-virus measures that had severely restrained economic activity in 2022, but the relaxation has also led to a sharp rise in Covid cases that economists say might hamper near term growth. For 2022, GDP expanded 3.0%, badly missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021. Other indicators for December such as retail sales and factory output, also released along with GDP data, beat expectations but were still weak. "Activity data in December surprised broadly to the upside, but … [Read more...] about China’s 2022 economic growth one of the worst on record, post-pandemic policy faces test

To inject additional money into the economy, banks are also awaiting the SBV's revision of some risk-reward laws. The early notification of credit room by SBV and the revision of Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN is a crucial condition for banks seeking to balance their capital The market heard speculation last week that the SBV will provide commercial banks with a credit line in January. Consequently, banks will be awarded a credit margin ranging from 10 to 12 per cent, depending on the bank. The credit rating of the whole system climbed by 14.5 per cent in 2022, the biggest rise over the previous five years. Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, an economic expert, said that in 2023, the SBV may consider boosting the money supply to help the economy owing to lessened external pressure and a higher inflation goal (4.5 per cent). As a result of the large base in 2022, economists anticipate that credit growth will decrease in 2023, expanding by 12 to 13 per cent. In addition to the credit room, … [Read more...] about Expanded credit probable for January

Google's parent Alphabet Inc is cutting about 12,000 jobs as it faces "a different economic reality", it said in a staff memo, doubling down on artificial intelligence (AI) and axing staff who support experimental projects. The job cuts affect 6% of its workforce, and follows thousands of layoffs at tech giants including Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp and Meta Platforms Inc who are downsizing after a pandemic-led hiring spree left them flabby in a weak economy. Shares in Mountain View, California-based Alphabet, which boosted its workforce by nearly a third through 2020 and 2021, rose 4% on Friday. They had fallen 30% in the past 12 months, echoing a 24% slump in the broader tech industry. Sundar Pichai, Alphabet's boss since 2019, said in the memo on Friday that he took "full responsibility" for the decisions that led to the layoffs. Pichai, whose pay was recently tied more closely to performance, said this was a moment to "sharpen our focus, reengineer our cost base and … [Read more...] about Alphabet cuts 12,000 jobs after pandemic hiring spree, refocuses on AI