Containers at a port in Vietnam (Illustrative photo: VNA) Sydney (VNA) – Richard Maude, Senior Fellow at Australia’s Asia Society Policy Institute, has spoken highly of trade prospects of Southeast Asian nations against the backdrop of COVID-19. In an article, he said that global trends in trade, foreign investment and production offer a mix of peril and opportunity for the Southeast Asian governments as they try to steer their damaged economies towards recovery. “Beset by lockdowns, disrupted supply chains and travel restrictions, world trade volumes fell by historically steep levels in the first half of 2020. Southeast Asia was no exception – the region’s economies rely heavily on external demand and many play increasingly significant roles in East Asian supply chains,” he continued. In the second quarter of 2020, for example, the value of goods exported from the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) fell by 15 percent on a year-on-year basis and imports fell by 27 percent. Foreign direct investment flows to Southeast Asia also declined sharply early in 2020. The vertiginous plunge in world goods trade, at least, may now be bottoming out, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains decidedly gloomy about prospects for a trade-led recovery in Asia. Even so, amid all the uncertainty and downside risk, Southeast Asia may yet find itself better placed than other regions to trade itself out of trouble, the expert said, citing that East Asian economic regionalism will strengthen as one of the reasons. Most major East Asian economies – China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan – have managed to re-open their economies. China’s giant economy in particular is once again growing and helping keep Southeast Asian trade afloat. Domestic consumption in Southeast Asia could double to 4 trillion USD over the next ten years. Within the region, there are also signs the deep …
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