The Global Economic Outlook report from Oxford Economics, commissioned by chartered accountancy body ICAEW suggests that while economic activities are picking up again and growth is expected to eventually rebound to 6.4 percent in 2021, the pace of recovery over the second half of 2020 will vary across the region, depending on the easing of lockdown restrictions and improved export demand. The Covid-19 outbreak reduced global GDP by around 9 percent in the first half of 2020, at least three times the size of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. Despite a very strong rebound in the third quarter of 6.4 percent, the report suggests that world GDP will contract overall by 4.4 percent in 2020. However, there is momentum building in the second half of 2020 (H2), which will drive growth to 5.8 percent in 2021, and lead the global economy to recover to its pre-crisis peak by the midpoint of next year, a similar time frame as the post-2008 financial crisis recovery. The strength of the rebound in economic activity over the coming quarters in South-East Asia remains uncertain, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2020, after the expected initial strong bounce in global trade and domestic activity post-lockdowns… Read full this story
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