The Chiefs opened as a 1.5-point favorite to win Super Bowl LIV on Sunday, which according to ESPN Stats & Information’s line archive makes them only the fifth team to go into the NFL championship game with a spread smaller than two points.
The 49ers, meanwhile, are underdogs in a Super Bowl for the first time in their history, having played entered the match as the favorite in each of their last six trips to the big game.
Here’s a look at the main betting trends ahead of Super Bowl LIV.
According to Oddschecker, the Chiefs are 4/5 favorite, while the 49ers are 28/25 underdogs.
Kansas City makes its first Super Bowl appearance since the 1970 and its record in the NFL championship game stands at 1-1.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is 5-1 in Super Bowls, with the only defeat coming in Super Bowl XLVII—the franchise’s last appearance in the title decider.
Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite against the spread and is 22/25 to cover, while the 49ers are 19/20 to cover.
The Chiefs are a league-best 12-5-1 against the spread this season, covering the spread on 70.6 percent of occasions by an average of 4.6 points per game.
Kansas City is 10-4-1 against the spread as favorite, which is also the best record in the NFL this season. San Francisco, meanwhile, is 11-6-1 against the spread, the fourth-best record in the league and a perfect 5-0-0 as the underdog.
In the history of the Super Bowl , the favorite has lifted the Lombardi Trophy on 34 of 53 occasions, but teams that began as favorites by three points or less are only 8-7.
The over/under line in terms of total points scored is set at 54, which seems sensible given the game will pit two of the NFL’s most free-scoring teams against each other.
During the regular season, the 49ers and the Chiefs ranked second and fifth in the NFL in terms of points per game, scoring an average of 29.9 and 28.2 respectively. Both figures have increased through the playoffs, with the 49ers scoring an average of 32 points, while the Chiefs have put up a jaw-dropping 43 points per game.
While last year’s Super Bowl might have been a dull affair, in recent history the NFL championship game has historically seen plenty of points on the board.
The Super Bowl has averaged 44.8 points per game in the last decade, with at least 50 points scored in half of the 24 Super Bowls played since San Francisco last lifted the Lombardi Trophy in 1995.
Most passing yards
Patrick Mahomes is a 3/10 favorite to be the quarterback with the most passing yards in the game, while Jimmy Garoppolo is the 49/20 outsider.
It could hardly be otherwise, given the latter has thrown for only 208 yards in his two playoff games combined as the 49ers leaned heavily on their run game.
In the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers, Garoppolo completed just six passes.
Mahomes, meanwhile, sits at the opposite end of the spectrum. The reigning NFL MVP has thrown for 615 yards and eight touchdown passes in two postseason games.
Mahomes is also 5/4 to be named Super Bowl MVP, followed by Garoppolo at 3/1 and 49ers running back Raheem Mostert at 11/2.
In the history of the Super Bowl, a quarterback has been named MVP 29 times, including seven times in the last decade.
Denver Broncos’ Terrell Davis, meanwhile, was the last running back to win the award, at Super Bowl XXXII.
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