By JACK BLANCHARD
Good Tuesday morning.
DRIVING THE DAY
AMEND AND MAKE DO: The almighty Commons power struggle over Britain’s EU departure entered what looks like its final stages last night, as the first backbench and opposition amendments were put forward ahead of next week’s big Brexit debate. The most important so far is this cross-party proposal drawn up by Commons home affairs committee Chairwoman Yvette Cooper and former Tory Minister Nick Boles, and already signed by more than 30 backbench MPs. If voted through next Tuesday, it would force the government to give parliamentary time one week later — on Tuesday, February 5 — to Cooper’s new EU Withdrawal Bill (read it in full here). That bill, if passed, would in turn place a legal obligation on the government to seek a delay to Article 50 if it was unable to get a Brexit deal through the Commons by a new deadline of February 26. Parliament, it seems, really is going to take back control.
Oops: In all the excitement, those drafting the Cooper amendment seem to have gotten the year wrong. Let’s hope the rest of it has been thought through a little more carefully.
Is it going to pass? Right now, the prospects look very good. Countless parliamentary process experts say the plan should work, if approved by a majority of MPs. And Cooper already has the backing of senior backbenchers including fellow select committee chairs Hilary Benn, Nicky Morgan and Norman Lamb, plus former Tory Cabinet Ministers Dominic Grieve and Oliver Letwin. And while Labour has not formally given its backing yet, Jeremy Corbyn told the Commons yesterday: “We will, as we have said consistently from the beginning, back amendments that seek to rule out the disaster of no deal.” So unless Corbyn pulls support at the 11th hour, the numbers are almost certainly there for this to pass next Tuesday night.
Will it even be opposed? The Times splashes on a private warning from Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd to the prime minister that up to 40 Remain-supporting ministers could quit the government to vote in favor of Cooper’s plan. Deputy Political Editor Sam Coates cites Business Minister Richard Harrington, Minister for Digital Margot James and Armed Forces Minister Tobias Ellwood as among those considering their positions. He says ministers are demanding a free vote, and that Chief Whip Julian Smith will make a final decision later this week. Sky News’ Faisal Islam has heard the same.
Really? It would seem extraordinary for the government not to oppose a plan for parliament to wrest control away from the prime minister in this way, and especially in order to seek an outcome — a delay to Article 50 — to which May is vehemently opposed. But it’s possible that if government whips conclude they are certain to lose the vote anyway, they may allow ministers to abstain rather than face mass resignations from the front bench. What seems more likely, however, is that May will choose to go down fighting, sending a message to her Euroskeptic backbenches that she has done all she can to keep no-deal on the table.
Stage 2: We’re still awaiting publication this morning of the other key “take back control” amendment, due to be put forward by Tory Remainer and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve. His proposal (he explains it on the BBC’s “Politics Live” show here) would force the government to give backbench MPs parliamentary time to table their own proposals on Brexit, and for votes to be held so that parliament could express its view on each one. HuffPost’s Arj Singh revealed last night that the two Remainer factions are now working hand in glove, and that these two amendments are designed to be “compatible” — one blocking a no-deal scenario, the other giving parliament time to agree a new approach. The Times’ Oliver Wright reports the same, and Grieve’s name on the Cooper amendment last night looks like confirmation of a joined-up approach.
Not sure where this fits in: But Hilary Benn last night tabled his own separate amendment, calling for a series of indicative votes in the Commons on the next steps. It’s important to remember that next Tuesday, power will once again lie in the hands of Commons Speaker John Bercow to decide which amendments should be put to the vote.
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MEANWHILE IN LABOUR LAND: Jeremy Corbyn put forward Labour’s own official amendment last night, inching the party closer toward facilitating a second EU referendum. The Labour proposal represents the party’s much-anticipated next move on Brexit following its failure to topple the government via a vote of no confidence last week. The amendment demands parliamentary time for a series of votes on what should happen next, and specifies that the “options” voted upon must include Labour’s alternative Brexit plan — a full customs union, plus a “strong relationship” with the single market — and a proposal to put the Commons’ final decision back to the people in a second referendum.
Can. Road. Kicked: The carefully-worded amendment looks like a smart move by Team Corbyn, and shows it’s not just Downing Street that is addicted to kicking the Brexit can down the road. It means that for the first time, Labour is now formally demanding MPs be given a vote on whether a second referendum should take place — so keeping their hardcore Labour Remainers happy. At the same time, it carefully avoids saying whether Labour would actually back such a step. The aim, as ever, is to keep both sides of the uneasy Labour coalition on board for as long as humanly possible — and it would seem this amendment has achieved that for at least another week.
So far so good: The People’s Vote wing of the Labour Party seemed pretty pleased last night, with Tottenham MP David Lammy calling the amendment a “big step forward” and his Remainer colleague Ben Bradshaw hailing the “important progress” in Labour’s position. But other more Brexitty Labour MPs issued stark warnings about what might happen if Corbyn takes the next step and actually backs a People’s Vote. Shadow Housing Minister Melanie Onn — the MP for Leave-supporting Grimsby — wrote to her local members last night to say she would quit the frontbench rather than vote for a second referendum. And HuffPost’s Paul Waugh reports on further unrest at last night’s weekly PLP meeting, with two backbench MPs from very different wings of the party — John Spellar and Chris Williamson — speaking out about the dangers of Labour backing a second referendum.
Never gonna happen: Happily for Team Corbyn, this amendment has little chance of actually passing the Commons next week. The Tory Remainers needed to defeat the government were never going to be comfortable backing an amendment put forward by Corbyn himself, and the equivocation in Labour’s plan should give them ample excuse to avoid doing so. Anna Soubry tweeted last night that Labour’s position does not go “far enough.” ITV’s Paul Brand confirmed that none of the obvious Tory rebels will be getting on board, meaning the amendment looks doomed to fail.
Doctor, doctor: Happily for the People’s Voters, they should have another amendment to support that calls outright for a second referendum. The Sun’s Steve Hawkes reveals plans for what is being dubbed the “doctors’ amendment,” backed by four of parliament’s leading medical professionals. The amendment has not yet been formally put forward, but Hawkes says lead signatories will include Tory MPs Dr. Sarah Wollaston and Dr. Phillip Lee, Labour MP Dr. Paul Richards and SNP MP Philippa Whitford. Riffing on the somewhat tortuous metaphor, Wollaston tells the Sun: “It’s all about informed consent. You wouldn’t opt for surgery if you didn’t know the operation you were having. And here, Theresa May is the surgeon.”
Incoming: Giving further cheer to the People’s Vote campaign will be this week’s must-read Telegraph column from former Foreign Secretary William Hague, who concludes “with a heavy heart” that a second referendum is now probably on the cards. Hague has weighed up the situation in parliament following last week’s crushing rejection of May’s deal, and reckons two of the remaining options — a no-deal scenario, and a cross-party agreement for a softer Brexit — can now be taken off the table. He believes the only realistic options left now are Theresa May successfully renegotiating the deal with Brussels to keep her backbenchers happy — a “long shot,” he says, given the EU’s intransigence — a second referendum, or a general election.
Speaking of which: Right on cue, the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford reveals CCHQ is now on an election footing, with Tory Party chief exec Mick Davies briefing officials this morning on the need to have “resources in place” for a snap poll. It follows last week’s Daily Mail scoop that the civil service is also preparing for the possibility of a general election in the weeks ahead. You didn’t really want a quiet life, did you?
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SO WHAT ABOUT PLAN B?
NOTHING HAS … OH, FORGET IT: Theresa May, meanwhile, is ignoring all of the above and pressing ahead with her Plan A/B to improve her Brexit deal and win back the support of Tory and DUP MPs. Yesterday’s marathon session in parliament saw the PM drowning in “nothing has changed” jokes — a phrase that now really need to be consigned to John Rentoul’s banned list — as she insisted the backstop can be modified to secure a majority in the Commons. But amidst all the mockery (the Sun’s online video team wins the day with this Bill Murray/”Groundhog Day” mash-up), is it possible May actually has a chance of seeing this through?
Exhibit A: The FT’s George Parker and Laura Hughes reported last night that Tory Brexiteers are now starting to feel the heat as parliament threatens to take control of the Brexit process. “Some are looking for reasons to back Mrs May’s deal if she can win more concessions in Brussels, rather than face the growing likelihood that Brexit will be delayed and possibly reversed the longer they hold out,” they report. One Euroskeptic Tory MP tells them: “People have had a month to reflect on the threat of no Brexit. There is an increased likelihood of a delay, and even that itself would be very damaging.”
Exhibit B: In a pretty jaw-dropping turnaround, Tory Brexiteer Nadine Dorries — who only last month described May’s deal as “imprisonment” — told BBC Newsnight last night that it may now be time for Euroskeptics to “swallow our pride” and vote in favor of the PM’s plan. She said: “I can feel a growing consensus among a number of MPs — faced with these Europhile kamakaze MPs, who really don’t care about their careers going up in flames, who want to overturn parliamentary tradition in order to stop Brexit — I think many people are now realizing that we would support this deal to get it over the line. Because every day here is a dangerous day at the moment. We may have to see that this is a deal, we will have to swallow our pride, swallow what we would prefer, and vote for it.” Watch the clip.
Exhibit C: He’s not an MP, but Darren Grimes was a key figure in the Brexit campaign and the fact that he last night tweeted support for Dorries’ position may be indicative of a wider softening among the Brexiteer ranks. “There is now no other option” but to back May’s deal, he wrote.
Exhibit D: The DUP’s Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson — the hardest of hardline MPs — was also on Newsnight last night, and indicated his party could also back May’s deal if she can secure a unilateral exit from the backstop. “It wouldn’t be ideal,” he said, “because it would be an acceptance that Northern Ireland could potentially be treated differently for a period of time. But, you know, we’re prepared to look at any arrangement and work with her on any arrangement which ensures the U.K. as as whole leaves the EU and that Northern Ireland is not left stuck in the EU. And if there has to be some flexibility there, we have said that of course we are always willing to look at those possibilities.”
So it’s all about the backstop: Wilson’s comments echo those of Tory backbench chief Graham Brady, who told the BBC yesterday that time-limiting the backstop would be enough to win the day. “So much of the vote against was from people who simply cannot support a potentially permanent backstop,” he said. “If that can be sorted out, then I think we might get that withdrawal agreement through.”
Next steps: The expectation is that No. 10 will tacitly back another new amendment in the coming days from a Tory Brexiteer — possibly Andrew Murrison again — calling for a sunset clause on the backstop to be introduced. If passed by MPs next Tuesday night, May would then be able to return to Brussels with “proof” that such a concession would be enough to get this deal done. No. 10, however, remains concerned that Brussels will say no to the idea before such a vote even takes place. “The trouble is that anything we suggest will get automatically rejected by the EU, and then how do we get MPs to vote for it?” a Downing Street source asks the Times. Which doesn’t bode too well for the outcome.
MEANWHILE IN BRUSSELS
POLES APART: The long-awaited EU27 split on Brexit finally emerged yesterday, just as Brexiteers had long predicted. Unfortunately it was 1 state vs. 26, with Poland a rogue voice calling for the backstop to be time limited to five years. “If Ireland turned to the EU about changing the agreement … so that it would only apply temporarily — let’s say five years — the matter would be resolved,” Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz said. But as POLITICO’s Lili Bayer and colleagues report from Brussels this morning, there is little or no support for his stance. “By now we are quite used to this minister’s comments,” one EU diplomat sniffs. “It is not the first time he breaks rank. It’s surprising how Poland relies on the solidarity of others, but never shows it when other member states need it.” Theresa May needs this position to change to have any hope of getting the concessions she needs.
Small ray of hope? The threat of a no deal Brexit still looms large, however, and the BBC’s Europe Editor Katya Adler reported last night that fear is growing across EU27 capitals. “Palms are beginning to get a bit sweaty across the EU,” she said on the News at Ten. “This is an organization that’s used to doing deals at the 11th hour — but with only nine weeks to go now, EU leaders are getting nervous about the prospect of a costly no-deal Brexit.” Will it be enough to change minds?
Why we are leaving, pt 5,219: Veteran MEP Elmar Brok charged constituents €150 per head to cover the costs of visiting him at the European Parliament — while also claiming many of the same costs back from the legislature, Maxime Schlee and Ryan Heath reported for POLITICO last night. The system netted a total surplus of nearly €18,000 from four group visits in 2016 and 2017, according to copies of documents from the German Christian Democrat’s office obtained by POLITICO.
Why the EU loves Brexit: Britain’s EU departure will leave the European Parliament a much more stable place, EU expert Andrew Duff writes for POLITICO.
TODAY’S BREXIT DIARY
Batting for No. 10: First up, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay has the morning broadcast round for the government. Shadow Business Secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey will be out and about trying to explain Labour’s new stance.
The weekly row: The Cabinet then meets at 9.30 a.m., with a row over the PM’s Brexit approach likely to dominate proceedings. (Expect to be reading copious amounts of leaked detail by about lunchtime.) Brexiteer ministers may use the meeting to grumble about this Telegraph report, which suggests the PM’s Brexit adviser Olly Robbins was sending private texts to Chancellor Philip Hammond undermining her “Plan B” during Sunday afternoon’s Cabinet conference call.
Brexit conference: Polling guru John Curtice is among the speakers at a day-long Brexit conference in central London arranged by the ‘U.K. in a Changing EU’ think tank. It publishes a new study this morning showing the scale of our divided nation, with people now more likely to identify with a Brexit position than they are with any political party.
People’s presser: People’s Vote campaigners are holding a press conference at 9.45 a.m. to attack the various alternatives being put forward to a second referendum. Caroline Lucas, David Lammy, Bridget Phillipson and Jo Swinson will be among the speakers.
Sedwill speaks: Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill addresses the Institute for Government at noon, as the think tank launches its annual “Whitehall Monitor” report. (Watch a livestream here.) The study, published this morning, concludes: “The uncertainties of Brexit are causing serious disruptions across government, and have distracted from the day-to-day business of government including the delivery of public services and management of major projects.”
What a Guy: The EU Parliament’s Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt appears before a parliamentary committee in Brussels at 2 p.m. U.K. time to discuss the latest state of play.
Citizen Saj: Home Secretary Sajid Javid is before a House of Lords EU committee at 2.30 p.m. to answer questions about citizens’ rights.
Ivan the Terrible: Everyone’s favorite Brexit miserablist Ivan Rogers, the U.K.’s former EU ambassador, delivers a speech at UCL this evening entitled: “Where did Brexit come from, and where is it going to take the U.K.?” Playbook predicts you probably won’t like the answer … The UCL website says the event is sold out, but they’re promising a livestream.
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PARLIAMENT: Commons sits at 11.30 a.m. with an hour of foreign office questions.
ECONOMY STATS: Monthly employment stats and monthly public finance figures are both published at 9.30 a.m.
WELCOME BACK: Theresa May’s former chief of staff Nick Timothy has been given a new government role, helping organize the 2022 Commonwealth Games in his hometown of Birmingham. The Mirror is not impressed.
COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: Two big Cabinet-level appearances today, with Environment Secretary Michael Gove answering questions about the rural economy before a House of Lords committee at 11.30 a.m., and Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson discussing his departmental priorities before the Commons defense committee at 3.30 p.m.
OAKESHOTT SHOOTS BACK: Author Isabel Oakeshott shoots back at those criticizing her appearance alongside Diane Abbott on BBC Question Time last week. In a Spectator blog she describes Abbott as “rude” and attacks what she calls “the faux allegations of racism and sexism towards Abbott on the show.” This one is going to run and run.
ALSO IN LABOUR LAND: Former Shadow Cabinet Minister Kate Osamor is criticized in several papers for writing a letter in support of her son to the courts using headed Commons notepaper. The Times has more.
ON STRIKE: Cleaners, security guards and admin staff are on strike today over low pay at the ministry of justice and the department for business, which is not a great look for the government.
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (7.10 a.m.) … Today program (7.50 a.m.) … Sky Sunrise (8.10 a.m.) … LBC Radio (8.35 a.m.).
Shadow Business Secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey broadcast round: Sky Sunrise (7.35 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (8.30 a.m.)
Also on the Today program: Conservative politician Ian Duncan Smith (7.10 a.m.) … Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (8.30 a.m.)
Also on Sky Sunrise: Tory Remainer Sarah Wollaston (8.15 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC Radio): Tory Brexiteer Mark Francois and former EU negotiator Michael Leigh (7.05 a.m.).
TalkRADIO: Tory Remainer Dominic Grieve (7.05 a.m.) … International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, live from Davos (7.19 a.m.) … DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson (8.05 a.m.) … Tory Brexiteer Mark Francois (8.10 a.m.) … with Corbynista MP Chris Williamson on-hand throughout.
All Out Politics: (Sky News, 9 a.m.): DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson (9 a.m.) … Columnist Rachel Shabi and City A.M. Editor Christian May review the newspaper comment sections (9.15 a.m. & 10.15 a.m.) … Brexit experts Shanker Singham (IEA), Paul McGrade (Lexington Comms) and Allie Renson (IoD) debate the impact of a no-deal scenario on trade (9.30 a.m.) … Former parliamentary lawyer Stephen Laws (9.45 a.m.) … Employment Minister Alok Sharma (10 a.m.) … Labour MP Seema Malhotra and Tory MP Vicky Ford debate Brexit (10.30 a.m.) … Tory Remainer Dominic Grieve (10.45 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC2, 12.15 p.m.): Tory Brexiteer Nadine Dorries … Labour peer and former Home Secretary David Blunkett … Money-saving expert Martin Lewis … The Observer’s chief leader-writer Sonia Sodha.
Iain Dale in the Evening (LBC Radio): Communication Workers Union boss Dave Ward (8 p.m.).
Reviewing the papers tonight: (BBC, 10.45 p.m. & 11.30 p.m.): Former ITV journo Daisy McAndrew and Victims’ Commissioner Helen Newlove … (Sky News, 10.30 p.m. & 11.30 p.m.): Former Labour adviser Ayesha Hazarika and the Sun’s political editor Tom Newton Dunn.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)
City A.M.: IMF warning puts clouds over Davos.
Daily Express: Second vote will lead to civil unrest.
Daily Mail: Ramp up hunt for our girl’s killer, Mr. Javid.
Daily Mirror: Cover-up over Grenfell-style cladding.
Financial Times: May’s hopes of revising Irish backstop rebuffed by Barnier.
HuffPost U.K.: Labour makes its move.
i: Ministers plan mass resignation.
Metro: Groundhog May.
The Daily Telegraph: Corbyn backs plan for second referendum.
The Guardian: May rules out second vote as “threat to social cohesion.”
The Independent: Groundhog Day.
The Sun: Row over Sandringham Palace gamekeeper.
The Times: Dozens of ministers ready to quit over Brexit.
BEYOND THE M25
ON THE BUSES: Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is considering using new powers to take control of the region’s bus network after 35 years of privatized services, the FT’s Andy Bounds reports. “The city would be the first to use a new U.K. law that gives directly-elected mayors the power to franchise bus services,” he notes. A decision is expected later this year. In the meantime, Burnham plans to hike council tax bills by £9 a year to pay for free bus travel for 16-18-year-olds. The Manchester Evening News has more.
NEWS FROM THE ALPS: The annual gathering of the global metropolitan elite lizards in Davos, Switzerland gets underway this morning, with Britain’s former Foreign Secretary David Miliband among today’s speakers. POLITICO’s Ryan Heath and Florian Eder are there to keep abreast of it all, and you can follow their liveblog here. Florian and Ryan are also publishing a daily Davos Playbook throughout this week — read today’s edition here at 10 a.m. London time. And there’s also a daily Davos podcast — Today’s edition features an interview with Formula One racing driver Nico Rosenberg.
EVER-CLOSER UNION: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will come together in the city of Aachen today to sign a new treaty bringing the EU’s two main power players closer together than ever before. But as POLITICO’s Matthew Karnitschnig notes, the cautious treaty promises much but delivers little. “The declarations in the treaty are formulated in such broad terms that they’re essentially meaningless,” he reports.
PEACE TALKS WITH PUTIN: Japanese PM Shinzō Abe is in Moscow today for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Abe’s aim is to resolve the decades-long dispute between the two nations over the sovereignty of islands stretching from northern Japan to the southern tip of eastern Russia, though hopes of a breakthrough are predictably low. Latest here from Japanese daily the Asahi Shimbun, and background here from the Telegraph’s man in Moscow Alec Luhn.
CARO FANS: Playbook must confess to not having actually read this yet — much like his LBJ books, to be honest — but devotees of the legendary Lyndon Johnson biographer Robert A. Caro might like to know he’s written a big piece for this week’s New Yorker.
CROCODILE TEARS: The brutal government-sponsored violence against protesters in Zimbabwe continues under the rule of Emmerson “The Crocodile” Mnangagwa.”This government is far worse than Robert Mugabe,” journalist and activist Rashweat Mukundu told BBC Newsnight last night. “They never changed the structures of governance when Mugabe left office. They simply took over and continued.” Last night social media access was finally restored for Zimbabweans, after being blocked by Mnangagwa’s government last week as part of a shutdown of internet services. CNN has the latest.
Westminster weather: ☀️❄️🌧 Lovely start to the day, with blue skies, freezing temperatures and lots of winter sunshine. But watch out — there’s rain coming this afternoon.
Travel: No service on the Piccadilly line between Acton Town and King’s Cross eastbound.
Spotted: Jeremy Hunt spinner Tim Smith at the Ma La Sichuan on Great Peter Street yesterday.
No. 10 Brexodus continues: Theresa May is braced for the departure of another trusted Downing Street aide, Playbook hears, with special adviser Richard Chew departing for the U.S. imminently to live with his fiancé. Chew was at CCHQ during the 2015 election campaign and has spent the subsequent three-and-a-half years as political adviser in No. 10. His departure has been long anticipated in Downing Street but marks the loss of another experienced head from May’s top team. Her political director Alex Dawson is joining Peter Mandelson’s consultancy Global Counsel, while head of strategic comms Ben Mascall joined PR consultancy Headland last autumn.
Also moving on: Totally missed this on Friday night, but BuzzFeed’s U.K. editor Janine Gibson has left the company. The Guardian’s Jim Waterson — her erstwhile political editor — filed this on her departure and the wider financial challenges facing the site … Meanwhile the entire editorial stuff at new media mag Drugstore Culture, including editor Matthew D’Ancona, have resigned in protest over what they said was a plan to sack two junior members of staff. Press Gazette has the story.
Happy birthday to: Tory peer and former Education Secretary Gillian Shephard … Crossbench peer and Chairman of the committee on standards in public life Paul Bew … Tory peer and former Chairman of the 1922 Committee Michael Spicer … Private Eye journo Francis Wheen … and Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat.
And belated happy birthday to: Ilford North MP Wes Streeting … West Dumbartonshire MP Martin Docherty-Hughes.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich and our producer Jillian Deutsch.
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