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SPORTS PAGE: Well, California’s college football season has wrapped and we are all Bulldogs today. From the meaningless file, the Raiders were at the Bengals this morning and the Niners host Seattle (1:05 on FOX). The 11-2 Rams host the Eagles for the evening game (5:20 on NBC). Ugh, the Broncos are worse than the Browns.
EAR TICKLER: On the Gimme Shelter podcast, CALmatters’s Matt Levin and the LAT’s Liam Dillon talk to Senator Scott Wiener about the renewed push for higher density housing near transit. On the return of Wiener’s legislation, the senator from San Francisco says “To build three and a half million homes, which is our housing deficit, you’re never going to do that without zoning reform.”
BILLS BY THE NUMBERS: From Noonerite lobbyist Chris Micheli:
Through Friday, December 14, there have been 205 bills introduced in the 2019 Legislative Session:
The deadline for introducing new bills is Friday, February 22, 2019
WASHINGTON WATCH: On the Sunday shows was Adam Schiff (D-Burbank).
BALLOTPALOOZA: California GOP pundits have been split to explain the avalanche of ballots on November 6 that led to far more losses than they were prepared for, splitting blame to strategic blunders to outright fraud.
As I wrote last week, Congressman Jeff Denham (R-Turlock) alluded to fraud to explain a differential between internal polls and the final result, in which he lost 47.7% to 53.3%. Internal polls, he claimed, showed him up 7 points. Public polling was closer (2-5 points). All polling results in weighting of who is expected to actually turn out. Different methodologies are used–from objective such as past performance in similar elections and recency of registration to subjective questions in the poll among individual respondents about their motivation and interest in voting.
In most cases, it appears that public polls underweighted likely voters by about 3-5% against Democratic candidates, leading to a change in result from polls by about that amount. That is not saying pollsters failed, but rather amplifying the fact that it is an imperfect science.
Polling relies on steadiness of underlying trends, such as past performance. However, there was a lot of noise to adjust for in this election.
We had a surge of new voters, many of whom registered while at the DMV. No, it was not automatic as some people have claimed. Someone at the DMV had to say “Yes” to the question “Do you want to register to vote?” and answer whether they wanted to be affiliated with a party and then “Would you like to vote by mail?” Anyway, no campaign or independent observer knew whether or not these “casual registrants” would actually vote.
It appears they did.
Another metric we look at is return rates of ballots mailed to voters. I was reporting them here, courtesy of Political Data Inc. (PDI). In the last report before Election Day, 13,026,007 ballots had been mailed by counties to voters. Of these, 1,781,734 were in Voters’ Choice Act (VCA) counties, which mailed ballots out to all voters registered as of October 22. Another two counties–Alpine and Plumas–were already all-mail counties given their geographic dispersion and mailed out 13,238 ballots.
While we saw yesterday that Voters’ Choice Act counties exceeded statewide average in share of VBMs as total votes, I didn’t save the data as to whether ballots in such counties were returned earlier. Perhaps Paul Mitchell can run that for us when he and his family are back from a deserved break in Mexíco.
Let’s look at the performance data of vote-by-mail ballots sent out.
So, of the 13,026,007 ballots mailed out, 77.9% were returned. Note that the mailed out number may not be exact, as it relies on the data reported to PDI by counties. Those are different data than the return number, which is from the Secretary of State, but should be close. That does not mean that 22.1% of people who received a vote-by-mail ballot did not cast a ballot. I know some here in Sacramento who wanted to go to a physical voting space to cast a ballot with their kids. In doing so, they ended up casting a provisional ballot and the VBM was reported as not returned.
What is important in understanding the shifting election results and why the count took so long is another data point we get here–56.5%. That’s the share of ballots mailed to registered voters received on Election Day, the two postal days prior and the three postal days after all were likely not counted until after Election Day. And, only after a county counts every one of these can they move on to provisional ballots. Why? Well, if Joe is in a received a ballot in the mail and his kids are up to it on Election Day, he goes to a polling place (Vote Center in VCA counties), and casts a provisional ballot. Therefore, the county can’t count that ballot until all VBMs have been tallied to ensure he doesn’t vote twice.
Ballots that arrive at a county clerk’s office don’t hop out of the stacks and count themselves. Under law, the signatures on the outside of the envelope have to be validated and only after that are they put in the stacks of legit ballots to be opened and tallied. It’s a laborious process and there has been no real proposal for a secure replacement. It’s not like your credit card receipt where you sign Mickey Mouse, as the “validity” is handled on your monthly statement. Once a ballot is counted, there is no similar check of validity.
Meanwhile, this 56.5% number is very important for campaigns. Election Day is no longer about turning out polling place voters, which was the case when I was growing up around campaigns. Equally important is ballot chasing/harvesting/whatever you want to call it. 36.9% of all votes cast were on mailed out vote-by-mail ballots received at the end of the voting period. We used to call these “late absentees” but that characterization is flawed. “Absentee” connotes that they are vacationing, whereas it is now just the preferred manner of voting for a large majority (65.31%) of voters.
Voters are like many of us–many need reminders of birthdays, anniversaries, and term paper due dates. Yes, I had one of those term paper dreams last night. Voters aren’t necessarily lazy or indecisive. They just need a swift kick in the ass to actually send/turn in their ballots, many of which are already filled out on the proverbial kitchen table. For most Noonerites, November 6 was hard-wired into our heads. For most voters, however, it was just another Tuesday. Of all the campaign ads I saw this cycle, I don’t recall any that said “vote November 6.” And, we’ve already talked about the questionable value of traditional outreach.
- 6+ out of 10 voters voted by mail
- 5+ out of 10 voters who voted by mail did so at the end
Democrats outfoxed Republicans this cycle on mastering this shifting landscape and much of the credit goes to many affiliated but independent groups who took the bull by the horns. Would a better GOP ballot strategy have changed the results in all of the 15 state and federal California races that changed from the GOP to Dems? No–the issues were just too brutal this cycle. Some of the races? Yes.
My inbox is already being pounded with groups organizing for 2020 with this change in turnout strategy clearly in mind. Both parties are having organizational troubles. Whether they can get that past them and execute the new playbook of voting in California is up to them and their candidates.
HOME ALONE: John Myers reports in the Times on the tough job ahead for the shrunken Republican caucuses in the Legislature.
“There are 22 standing committees in the state Senate, plus at least a dozen more subcommittees or special committees. And after November’s election, only 11 Republican senators will be left to divvy up the work.
To the victors go the spoils. To the vanquished go the extra assignments.
“We’re going to have to cover a lot of bases,” Senate Minority Leader Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel) said. “It’s not going to be an easy task.”
Nor will things be much easier in the Assembly, home to 32 standing committees and just 20 Republicans. And through those panels are funneled an enormous amount of legislation — more than 4,600 bills in the two-year session that ended in August.”
The 19 staff let go from the Assembly GOP Caucus also includes several assigned to staff serving on committees. While majority Democrats have staff to each committee to provide analysis on their side, GOP members serving on thoe 32 committees rely on caucus staff for a GOP analytical take. That’s going to be a big challenge to navigate.
HOUSING: For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes that the state’s housing shortage is not just resulting in personal tragedy. “It’s hurting the state’s overall economy as employers face increasing shortages of skilled workers, especially in coastal areas where the housing squeeze is the tightest and local resistance to housing construction is the most implacable.”
More after the jump…
- Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
- Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
- Education: Wharton School of Business: Executive MBA Informational Reception: Thursday, December 6
- Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
- Job: California Hospital Association: legislative advocate
- Job: Disability Rights California: senior legislative advocate
- Job: Equality California: legislative manager
- Job: NorCal Cannabis: Legislative and Regulatory Strategist to Public Policy Strategist
- Job: Pruitt Consulting LLC: fundraising associate
- Job: SEIU-UHW: Regional Political Organizer (Fresno)
- Job: SEIU-UHW: Regional Political Organizer (Phoenix, AZ)
- Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento).
- Office Space: Class A Office Space Available on L Street, across from Capitol
- Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: February 7-8, April 4-5
- Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels
THE VIETNAMESE VOTE: The Trump Administration’s plan to deport Vietnamese refugees who are not U.S. citizens, arrived before July 12, 1995 when diplomatic relations with the country was established, and were convicted of crimes during their time in the U.S. is raising the ire of the political powerhouse communities in Orange County and San Jose. Those subject to the plan, if agreed to with Vietnam, would include those who committed minor crimes and served jail terms.
The LAT’s Anh Do reports on a rally yesterday in OC’s Little Saigon and the overall situation.
While only potentially affecting an estimated 8,000 people, it’s immensely personal to many of the estimated 300,000 Vietnamese-Americans. While many are happy about the economic advances that have been made in the country, the haunting of the horrors of the Viet Cong still is present among families. The suggestion of involuntarily sending back any Vietnamese is abhorrent to them.
Little Saigon is split between the current CA46 (Correa), CA47 (Lowenthal), and CA48 (Rohrabacher-outgoing). CA48 should be a Republican district, particularly in midterm years. The other two are safe Dem as currently drawn. Democrat Harley Rouda won CA48 with 53.6% of the vote and Dana Rohrabacher is retiring to Maine (not joking). While anything can change in 23 months, with President Trump on the ballot in November 2020 and these developments, Rouda is a strong favorite to win re-election regardless who Republicans put up against him.
In 2020, it could have an impact on State Senate District 37 (Irvine): John Moorlach won the seat with 57% of the vote in 2016 and, while not covering Little Saigon, there are 19,300 voters with Vietnamese surnames in the district. He just saw neighboring GOP senator Janet Nguyen fall. Nguyen won the seat in 2014 with 58.1% of the vote.
The Chron’s Sarah Ravini and Steve Rubenstein report on the reaction to the Administration’s immigration enforcement proposal in the San Jose area.
LA-LA LAND: The roosters have come home to roost for the cost of lavish pensions for some former Los Angeles city employees, reports Jack Dolan in the Los Angeles Times.
The list of recipients is dominated by former cops and firefighters whose million-dollar payouts from a separate retirement program drove their incomes well over the $220,000 annual limit the IRS allows pension funds to pay.
The top recipient of excess benefits last year was former LAPD Assistant Chief Earl Paysinger, whose $251,000 pension alone would have put him over the limit.
But an additional $1.3-million lump sum payment Paysinger got through the Deferred Retirement Option Plan when he retired in 2016 catapulted him way over the top, requiring the city to pay more than half of his pension from the Excess Benefit Plan.
I lived with the last name “Lay” growing up, so I can raise the issue that the first cite in this story is “Paysinger.”
Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing [email protected] for $40/week.
- SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Fresno, CA)
The Political/Community Regional Organizer is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
- SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Phoenix, AZ)
This position is a 6-month assignment to start and is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure, engage our members and workers to be a powerful force at their worksites while participating in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record and experience with Arizona politics/legislation is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
- Class A Office Space Available on L Street, across from Capitol. One well-furnished executive office & assistant station. Great views of Capitol. Use of in-suite 10-person conference room, kitchen, closet, & color printer/copier. $1,250/mo. Contact Michael Daft @ 916.448.3075 or [email protected]
Pruitt Consulting LLC, seeks a part-time Fundraising Associate in Sacramento.
Pruitt Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in fundraising for Democratic members of the California State Legislature, Constitutional officers, nonprofits, and political action committees.The Political Fundraising Associate assists the Political Fundraising Director and Chief Executive Officers in identifying donors, planning and attending fundraising events, and other business operations. This position requires analyzing political contributions, improving fundraising database, and assisting in various office duties.
, California’s statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization, is seeking a full-time
. The Legislative Manager will have the opportunity to spearhead Equality California’s legislative advocacy both substantively and administratively, as well as participate in electoral work for pro-LGBTQ candidates and community engagement throughout California. For more information and to apply, visit
- CCST Expert Briefing on California’s Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Monday, December 17th, Noon-1:00pm in Capitol Room 126. Join us for a briefing with experts from NASA Ames, DOE’s Joint Bioenergy Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Perspectives from California’s Federal Laboratories.” Panelists will discuss emissions monitoring, biomass, and soil carbon capture. To receive a to-go lunch box following the briefing, RSVP by Noon on December 14 to Puneet Bhullar at [email protected]
- Disability Rights California
We are seeking a Senior or Experienced Legislative Advocate for an aggressive disability rights organization. Join a lobbying team to advocate on issues that impact Californians with disabilities. Experience in special education and housing accessibility issues a plus. Salary based on experience. Apply here. Deadline is 12/7/2018.
The Victor Valley Community College District is currently recruiting for the position of Vice President of Human Resources. First date of review is scheduled for December 20, 2018. [full job description and application]
This positions will plan, organize, direct and supervise a comprehensive human resources program, including recruitment and selection, classification and pay, employee-employer relations, benefits, unemployment and record keeping; may provide general supervision for the district’s campus police and safety program; promote, direct, and implement programs to ensure equal employment opportunity, tolerance, and cultural awareness; assure compliance with applicable district policies and procedures, state and federal laws, codes and regulations; serve as chief negotiator.
- Looking to make a real difference? The California Hospital Association is seeking a full-time Legislative Advocate. This position will be responsible for representing and advocating the interests, policies and issues of CHA on state legislation, including high priority and complex state legislation. For more information and to apply, visit www.calhospital.org/job-opportunities.
Learn how you can earn the top ranked Wharton MBA right here on the West Coast, without putting your career on hold. Join Admissions Director Barbara Craft for an Information Reception on Thursday, December 6and learn what it takes to earn the Wharton MBA while continuing to live and work in Sacramento. Barbara will be joined by local students and alumni who will share their perspectives on why Wharton is worth the commute. This event will provide an overview of the admissions process and discuss what makes the Wharton program unique, followed by time to network and ask additional questions while enjoying light refreshments. Register for the event here.
The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at [email protected] or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]
- LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST TO PUBLIC POLICY STRATEGIST – NorCal Cannabis
NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.
- Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
- Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
- Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization’s activities.
- WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won’t find anywhere else. We’re the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Book now for February 7-8 or April 4-5 dates (December 13-14 are sold out). Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
To apply, visit:
- Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to [email protected].
Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.
The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
• Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
• Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
• Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.
View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)
- The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at [email protected].
- GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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