Hi there, college basketball fans. We’re finally measuring the time until Selection Sunday in days and weeks instead of months (it’s March 11!), and spots on the NCAA Tournament bubble are still very much up for grabs.
With our Field of 68 bracket projection, we’re here to do our best to help you decide for yourself how those resumes stack up. This isn’t a projection of what the seed lines will look like on Selection Sunday, but it’s a guess at how the bracket would look if the season ended after games on Tuesday. Our goal is to give you the information that will be used by the selection committee — a mix of statistics and other relevant facts for every single at-large team. As you know, even though numbers matter, numbers aren’t the only thing: The committee looks at the entire body of work, a process that includes so very many factors, and we try to include some of those factors.
What we do for each Field of 68 here on SportingNews.com is give you a glimpse at the information the selection committee sees on the Team Sheets: each team’s record in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 and combined records for Quadrant 3 and 4. Because, quite honestly, teams that have multiple losses in Quadrants 3 and 4 are in trouble, and teams that have a bulk of their wins against those teams are behind the proverbial eight-ball, too. Make sense?
As always, automatic bids go to the team with the best conference record. In case of a tie, the bid is given to the team with the best Pomeroy rating. All numbers (Pomeroy/RPI/KPI) are from the Team Sheets.
NCAA Tournament bracket projections
Projected No. 1 seeds
Virginia (ACC), Villanova, Xavier (Big East), Kansas (Big 12)Pom/RPI/KPI: 1/1/1. vs. Q1: 8-1. vs. Q2: 6-1. vs. Q3/4: 10-0Villanova (24-3): Pom/RPI/KPI: 2/2/2. vs. Q1: 8-2. vs. Q2: 7-1. vs. Q3/4: 9-0Xavier (24-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 12/3/4. vs. Q1: 7-4. vs. Q2: 8-0. vs. Q3/4: 9-0Kansas (22-6): Pom/RPI/KPI: 11/6/3. vs. Q1: 10-4. vs. Q2: 6-1. vs. Q3/4: 6-1
Need to know: At this point, Virginia is virtually locked into a No. 1 seed, and Villanova should be fine as long as the Wildcats don’t repeat the hiccup against St. John’s. If Xavier wins its final three regular-season games (all very winnable), the Musketeers should secure the first No. 1 seed in school history. Think what you will about Kansas’ chances of making the Final Four — all those close games have to scare Jayhawks fans — but KU’s resume checks all the boxes. The Jayhawks played a strong non-conference schedule (RPI 21), they have strong wins away from home (Kentucky, TCU, West Virginia, Syracuse, Texas), they have double-digit Quadrant 1 wins and they only have one even questionable loss (at home to Oklahoma State).
No. 2 seeds
Duke, Michigan State (Big Ten), Purdue, Auburn (SEC),Pom/RPI/KPI: 3/4/7. vs. Q1: 3-4. vs. Q2: 7-1. vs. Q3/4: 12-0Michigan State (27-3): Pom/RPI/KPI: 4/15/14. vs. Q1: 3-3. vs. Q2: 8-0. vs. Q3/4: 19-0Purdue (24-5): Pom/RPI/KPI: 6/11/9. vs. Q1: 6-3. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 14-0Auburn (23-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 10/7/5. vs. Q1: 7-3. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 11-0
Need to know: The selection committee made its position on Michigan State’s resume pretty clear with the reveal of the top 16 seeds on Feb. 11. Despite a sparkling 24-3 record, the Spartans were “only” the 11th overall seed, on the No. 3 line, a position that pretty clearly conflicted with Sparty’s top-five position in the polls. Because of all those Quadrant 4 games and because the Big Ten is down this year, the Spartans have played only five likely at-large teams, and they’re just 2-3 in those contests (losses to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan, wins against North Carolina and Purdue). Knowing how the committee viewed Michigan State then makes it hard to see the Spartans winding up on the top seed line, unless they win the Big Ten Tournament. On the other hand, since that selection committee reveal, most teams ahead of the Spartans have lost at least one game, and some have lost multiple games. Duke doesn’t have as many Q1 wins as others near the top of this list, but they’re our No. 5 overall seed today because the committee had them No. 7 overall at the reveal, and the Blue Devils are 3-0 since then, with quality wins vs. Virginia Tech and at Clemson.
No. 3 seeds
North Carolina, Texas Tech, Cincinnati (American), Arizona (Pac 12) Pom/RPI/KPI: 7/5/6. vs. Q1: 9-5. vs. Q2: 3-1. vs. Q3/4: 9-1 Texas Tech (22-5): Pom/RPI/KPI: 8/14/8. vs. Q1: 5-4. vs. Q2: 6-1. vs. Q3/4: 11-0Cincinnati (23-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 5/12/11. vs. Q1: 5-3. vs. Q2: 7-1. vs. Q3/4: 11–0Arizona (21-6): Pom/RPI/KPI: 23/18/15. vs. Q1: 4-3. vs. Q2: 6-3. vs. Q3/4: 11-0
Need to know: North Carolina is the highest-seeded team with at least seven losses, but knowing how much the committee values Quadrant 1 victories, those nine Q1 wins for the Tar Heels loom large. I seriously considered putting them on the No. 2 seed line ahead of either Purdue or Auburn. Cincinnati missed a couple opportunities in this past week; the Bearcats lost at Houston and lost at home to Wichita State. Any chances of potentially winding up on the No. 1 seed line have disappeared. Texas Tech was the No. 10 overall seed in the committee’s reveal, and since then they beat Oklahoma and lost at Baylor. They’re the No. 10 overall seed in the Field of 68 today.
No. 4 seeds
Clemson, West Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio State Pom/RPI/KPI: 17/9/13. vs. Q1: 3-6. vs. Q2: 7-0. vs. Q3/4: 10-0West Virginia (20-8): Pom/RPI/KPI: 12/23/21. vs. Q1: 6-6. vs. Q2: 6-1. vs. Q3/4: 8-1Tennessee (19-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 15/13/12. vs. Q1: 4-7. vs. Q2: 6-0. vs. Q3/4: 9-0Ohio State (23-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 14/20/20. vs. Q1: 3-5. vs. Q2: 6-1. vs. Q3/4: 14-1
Need to know: With eight losses, West Virginia has more Ls than several other teams with worse seeds that the Mountaineers this week, but I keep coming back to the 12 combined Q1/2 wins. And of those six Q1 wins, four were away from home and one was at home vs. the No. 1 overall seed (Virginia). That has to matter. Clemson is 4-3 without star senior Donte Grantham, but one of those wins was huge (vs. North Carolina). All seven of Ohio State’s losses are to teams in the KenPom Top 25, though that stat might be a bit misleading; the Buckeyes were swept by Penn State, which is 25 in the Pomeroy rating but 76 in the RPI.
No. 5 seeds
Wichita State, Rhode Island (A-10), Gonzaga (West Coast), KentuckyPom/RPI/KPI: 16/16/10. vs. Q1: 3-2. vs. Q2: 9-2. vs. Q3/4: 9-1Rhode Island (22-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 30/8/25. vs. Q1: 2-4. vs. Q2: 5-0. vs. Q3/4: 15-0Gonzaga (25-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 9/43/37. vs. Q1: 3-2. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 20-0Kentucky (19-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 26/17/17. vs. Q1: 4-7. vs. Q2: 7-2. vs. Q3/4: 8-0
Need to know: The last week or so has been very good to Wichita State. Not only did the Shockers win a HUGE road game at Cincinnati, but Baylor — a team Wichita State beat on the road in the non-conference portion of the schedule — has knocked off both Kansas and Texas Tech recently, which obviously boosts the Bears’ profile, and the Shockers, too. Gonzaga avenged its loss to Saint Mary’s, but this is probably the Bulldogs’ highest possible seed. Rhode Island fans were not happy that their team was left out of the top 16 at the committee’s reveal, but with that knowledge in our pocket, the Rams seem a good fit on the five-seed line.
No. 6 seeds
Arizona State, Michigan, TCU, Houston Pom/RPI/KPI: 33/27/22. vs. Q1: 3-4. vs. Q2: 5-2. vs. Q3/4: 11-1Michigan (22-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 24/29/38. vs. Q1: 3-5. vs. Q2: 3-2. vs. Q3/4: 15-0TCU (18-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 22/21/24. vs. Q1: 4-7. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 12-0Houston (21-5): Pom/RPI/KPI: 19/19/27. vs. Q1: 5-3. vs. Q2: 3-0. vs. Q3/4: 13-2
Need to know: Houston has pretty much secured its spot in the NCAA Tournament over the past couple weeks; the Cougars have picked up three of their five Q1 wins in February: vs. Cincinnati, at Temple, at UCF. The Cincy win, obviously, is the big one. TCU has four Q1 wins, but only one (vs. West Virginia) since starting point guard Jaylen Fisher (12.3 points, 5.4 assists) injured his knee in practice. The Horned Frogs are just 6-9 in their past 15 games (5-5 since Fisher’s injury). Arizona State knocked off UCLA and USC at home and had a chance to upend rival Arizona last week, but that one slipped away in the final minutes. At this point, as long as the Sun Devils beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, they should be fine.
No. 7 seeds
Nevada (MWC), Florida State, Butler, FloridaPom/RPI/KPI: 18/10/16. vs. Q1: 2-2. vs. Q2: 3-1. vs. Q3/4: 18-2Florida State (19-8): Pom/RPI/KPI: 27/65/23. vs. Q1: 6-4. vs. Q2: 1-3. vs. Q3/4: 12-1Butler (19-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 20/32/34. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 6-1. vs. Q3/4: 10-1Florida (17-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 28/49/23. vs. Q1: 5-3. vs. Q2: 6-6. vs. Q3/4: 6-1
Need to know: Nevada’s computer numbers are stellar, and that non-con win against Rhode Island was huge. But that’s the Wolfpack’s only win against a likely at-large team, and that’s neutralized by a home loss to UNLV and a neutral-court loss to San Francisco. Nevada needs to keep winning. Butler responded to a head-scratching home loss to Georgetown by pummeling Providence in the second half of a 15-point win and then blasting Creighton at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Speaking of head-scratching, Florida is on a two-game skid, an overtime loss at home to Georgia and a loss at Vanderbilt (which is 11-17). The Gators have seven wins against teams in this week’s Field of 68, so they should be fine, but it would still be good to avoid a complete collapse.
No. 8 seeds
Oklahoma, Creighton, Miami, AlabamaPom/RPI/KPI: 43/33/28. vs. Q1: 6-8. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 8-0Creighton (19-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 35/36/39. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 6-2. vs. Q3/4: 9-0Miami (19-8): Pom/RPI/KPI: 39/30/43. vs. Q1: 4-5. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 13-1Alabama (17-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 42/31/19. vs. Q1: 6-4. vs. Q2: 4-5. vs. Q3/4: 7-1
Need to know: Everyone wants to talk about Oklahoma. Yes, the Sooners are free-falling at the moment, with six losses in a row and nine in their past 11 games. And, yes, that is bad. But when you look at the overall resume, Oklahoma still has six Q1 wins — including at Wichita State and home vs. KU and Texas Tech — and zero losses outside of Q2. For now, that’s enough. Alabama is another squad with a lot of losses, but a lot of quality wins. The Crimson Tide has a huge contest at Auburn tonight; winning that would help fans sleep better.
No. 9 seeds
Seton Hall, Missouri, Texas A&M, ArkansasPom/RPI/KPI: 38/24/31. vs. Q1: 3-6. vs. Q2: 3-2. vs. Q3/4: 12-1Missouri (18-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 41/38/26. vs. Q1: 5-6. vs. Q2: 3-1. vs. Q3/4: 7-1Texas A&M (17-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 34/25/18. vs. Q1: 4-8. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 9-0Arkansas (19-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 44/34/29. vs. Q1: 4-8. vs. Q2: 2-1. vs. Q3/4: 13-0
Need to know: If Mizzou was even halfway decent in end-of-game situations, the Tigers would have clinched an at-large spot a while ago. But they flat-out gave away big late leads against West Virginia, Florida and Ole Miss, and road losses at Arkansas (two points) and LSU (one point) sting, too. Still, with five Q1 victories and 10 combined Q1/2 wins, the Tigers are on the right side of an ugly bubble. The SEC has a group of bubble-type teams with convoluted resumes; A&M started conference play 0-5, then won six of eight and now has lost three in a row. The Aggies have an excellent anchor win at Auburn, but like Mizzou and Arkansas and Alabama, they can’t afford a collapse and/or early exit in the SEC Tournament.
No. 10 seeds
Providence, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Kansas State Pom/RPI/KPI: 69/35/30. vs. Q1: 5-6. vs. Q2: 3-1. vs. Q3/4: 9-3N.C. State (19-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 47/55/49. vs. Q1: 5-7. vs. Q2: 2-1. vs. Q3/4: 12-1Virginia Tech (19-8): Pom/RPI/KPI: 31/54/44. vs. Q1: 4-6. vs. Q2: 4-1. vs. Q3/4: 11-1Kansas State (19-8): Pom/RPI/KPI: 49/59/40. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 5-0. vs. Q3/4: 11-1
Need to know: Providence continues to churn out a complicated resume. The Friars have a nice collection of wins, but they also have three Q3/4 losses. They lost at home to DePaul by 17 points — the score wasn’t that close most of the game — and then bounced back to beat Villanova on that same court, and then they faltered in the second half at Butler. Virginia Tech picked up the biggest resume boost possible, winning at Virginia, and the Hokies have a chance to finish strong, with three of their final four regular-season games at home.
No. 11 seeds
Texas, St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary’s, Syracuse, Baylor, Washington Pom/RPI/KPI: 40/52/33. vs. Q1: 5-8. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 8-0St. Bonaventure (20-6): Pom/RPI/KPI: 63/26/42. vs. Q1: 3-2. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 13-2*Saint Mary’s (25-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 21/28/45. vs. Q1: 1-0. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 22-2*Syracuse (18-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 45/39/32. vs. Q1: 2-5. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 12-1*Baylor (17-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 37/56/54. vs. Q1: 4-9. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 10-0*Washington (18-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 96/48/36. vs. Q1: 5-3. vs. Q2: 1-4. vs. Q3/4: 12-2(* First Four teams)
Need to know: After starting Atlantic 10 play with a 2-4 mark, St. Bonaventure had only one shot at boosting its at-large resume. The Bonnies HAD to beat Rhode Island at home, and they did that on Friday. Add that win to solid away-from-home non-conference wins against Syracuse, Maryland, Buffalo and Vermont and that just might be enough to get on the right side of a weak bubble. Saint Mary’s has had a rough time lately, missing an opportunity to beat Gonzaga at home and losing at San Francisco; the Gaels now have three losses to teams that won’t make the tournament and only one against a team that will. Winning the final two regular-season games and getting at least to the WCC title game is a must. Washington gets the miniscule nod over fellow Pac-10ers UCLA, USC and Utah with a better collection of wins, headed by a win in Kansas City against Kansas.
No. 12 seeds: New Mexico State (WAC), Middle Tennessee (C-USA), Buffalo (MAC), Vermont (America East)No. 13 seeds: ETSU (Southern), Louisiana (Sun Belt), Northern Kentucky (Horizon), (Murray State Ohio Valley)No. 14 seeds: Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley), South Dakota State (Summit), Montana (Big Sky), Rider (MEAC)No. 15 seeds: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), Charleston (Colonial), Winthrop (Big South), UC Santa Barbara (Big West)No. 16 seeds: Bucknell (Patriot), Penn (Ivy), *Wagner (Northeast), *Nicholls State (Southland), *North Carolina A&T (MEAC), *Southern (Southwestern)(* First Four teams)
Newbies this week: Baylor, Southern, Murray State, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, WinthropDropped out: Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Belmont, Boise State, Louisville, UNC Asheville, USC
NCAA Tournament bracket: Bubble teams
First four out … Pom/RPI/KPI: 53/42/51. vs. Q1: 2-5. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 13-1UCLA (19-8): Pom/RPI/KPI: 52/47/41. vs. Q1: 2-4. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 14-1LSU (16-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 62/75/47. vs. Q1: 5-5. vs. Q2: 3-5. vs. Q3/4: 8-1Marquette (15-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 50/60/52. vs. Q1: 4-8. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 8-0
On SN’s pretty generous bubble (in alphabetical order) …
Boise State (21-6): Pom/RPI/KPI: 58/50/57. vs. Q1: 0-2. vs. Q2: 5-2. vs. Q3/4: 15-2Georgia (15-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 70/66/48. vs. Q1: 5-6. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 6-3Louisville (18-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 32/51/53. vs. Q1: 2-7. vs. Q2: 1-2. vs. Q3/4: 15-0Maryland (19-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 36/61/71. vs. Q1: 0-9. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 16-0Mississippi State (20-8): Pom/RPI/KPI: 46/63/59. vs. Q1: 1-6. vs. Q2: 5-2. vs. Q3/4: 13-0Nebraska (21-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 56/58/68. vs. Q1: 1-6. vs. Q2: 3-2. vs. Q3/4: 17-1Notre Dame (16-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 29/68/58. vs. Q1: 2-7. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 9-3Oklahoma State (15-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 75/109/60. vs. Q1: 3-10. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 10-0Oregon (17-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 73/89/65. vs. Q1: 1-4. vs. Q2: 4-4. vs. Q3/4: 12-2Penn State (19-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 25/76/66. vs. Q1: 2-5. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 15-2SMU (15-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 76/95/73. vs. Q1: 2-5. vs. Q2: 3-4. vs. Q3/4: 10-3Temple (15-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 82/44/55. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 4-0. vs. Q3/4: 8-4Utah (17-9): Pom/RPI/KPI: 60/49/50. vs. Q1: 2-7. vs. Q2: 3-1. vs. Q3/4: 12-1Western Kentucky (20-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 61/57/62. vs. Q1: 1-2. vs. Q2: 3-1. vs. Q3/4: 15-4
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NCAA Tournament bracket projection: Kansas joins Virginia, Villanova, Xavier on top seed line have 3114 words, post on www.sportingnews.com at February 22, 2018. This is cached page on Talk Vietnam. If you want remove this page, please contact us.