After a train reportedly originating from North Korea arrived in Beijing on Monday afternoon and an emissary motorcade was recorded driving through the streets of China’s capital, speculation began to mount that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was on board.
The Associated Press reported that there was unusually heavy security at a guesthouse in Beijing where prominent North Koreans have stayed in the past. The train reportedly left Beijing on Tuesday afternoon, less than a day after it arrived.
China is North Korea’s most important ally and it would be an opportune time for the two countries to touch base. There is a bilateral summit between North and South Korea planned for April and the potential for a meeting with US President Trump in May.
While the reason behind the North Korean train in Beijing remains shrouded in mystery, China will be decisive in determining the future of North Korea’s relations with the international community.
James Edward Hoare is Associate Fellow of the London-based Chatham House Asia-Pacific Programme
DW: China-North Korea relations have traditionally been very close. But over the last couple of years, China has supported UN sanctions against North Korea. How would you characterize the current state of relations?
James Hoare: The problem with China and North Korea is that they share a long border and a lot of historic links, but the Koreans — North and South — are suspicious of that great neighbor, its huge size and its traditional wish to have subservient states on its borders.
Although relations with North Korea have been friendly, and of course China saved North Korea during the Korean War, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re always close. And there have been periods of tension and periods of disagreement between them.
The Koreans are determined not to be Chinese. They look on their great neighbor with a lot of suspicion and a lot of concern. Sanctions and the general willingness of the Chinese in recent years to go along with international condemnation of North Korea has not made the relationship any better.
However, China is still very important to North Korea both as a source of economic support, particularly oil, but also as an outlet for North Korean trade. A lot of trade still goes on despite sanctions. And that matters to North Korea. But at the same time, the North Koreans don’t want to be told what to do by China.
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Many experts hold the view that as North Korea’s only ally, China does not have a lot of influence in Pyongyang. But since talks with the South and the US might take place, Kim seems to have visited China. What do you think about that?
We don’t know that it is Kim, it could be, but equally it could be somebody else. I think that it’s partly to get a Chinese readout of motives.
The Chinese have more of a relationship with the United States than North Korea does. North Korea is not entirely cut off from the United States. It has a mission at the UN, and the US and North Korea want to talk. They can do and they have done in the past.
China is in much more direct contact with the United States and it could be that North Korea is seeking some insights from China about what US motives are — what the real US bottom line might be in negotiations — along with wanting to reassure itself that China is not going to be a difficulty for them.
Under normal circumstances, you would not be surprised that the North Koreans would send an envoy to China or that a very senior North Korean would go to China. Leaders have gone in the past in order to sound out the Chinese or whatever particular issues there are at the moment. But suspicion and concerns about China still remain.
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year's address that his country was in the “final stages” of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won’t happen!”
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July 4, 2017: North Korea’s ‘gift packages’
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that “the US would be displeased” by the launch. This, he said, was because “it was given a ‘package of gifts’ … on its ‘Independence Day.'” Trump wrote on Twitter in response: “North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?”
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July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: “I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk.”
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Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
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August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: “Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table.”
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September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: “The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.”
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September 19, 2017: Threat to ‘Rocket Man’
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a “rogue state” and said Washington “will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea” if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: “Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime.” Kim called Trump a “mentally-deranged US dotard” two days later.
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November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a “sick puppy.”
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January 3, 2018: Who’s got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year’s address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a “nuclear button” was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: “Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”
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February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
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Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: “no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!” Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
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A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted “an end to the hostile relations” and had expressed a commitment to “complete denuclearization” of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
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Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: “We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission.” However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
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April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
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April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
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May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to “tremendous anger and open hostility” displayed by Pyongyang.
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June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim’s closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. “I think you’re going to have a very positive result in the end,” he said.
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North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un’s nuclear saga
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified “security guarantees” to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.
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What does China want from the outcome of talks planned between North and South Korea and, potentially, the US?
I think the Chinese probably got worried last year, as many people did, that the exchange of rhetoric, the threatening attitude and provocations on both sides, were things that were designed to unsettle the other side.
It did look as though, considering the new and unpredictable US president, that there might be some form of conflict in East Asia. And China is not going to be able to stand idly by if there is some sort of conflict even if it’s short of all out war.
But China’s interest could still be affected with any sort of tension that has an economic knockback effect. China’s economic needs and trade are vulnerable to such actions. So the Chinese will be pleased that things seem to have moved away from the really high tension of last year.
Although they promised to have talks, the expectation of having talks is not necessarily going to lead to talks, there are a lot of steps to go through first.
The Chinese will be glad that people are talking now about talking and not about fighting. That’s been the Chinese line all along to both sides: “Pull back! Stop it! It’s too dangerous.”
I think the Chinese will be quite pleased that this is happening. And whether or not they are formally consulted, the Chinese will potentially be involved by both sides as a useful third party.
Read more: North Korea agrees to talks with South ahead of leaders’ summit
What is South Korea’s perspective on all this?
I think that for South Korea the concern is that whatever tensions there are in and around the Korean Peninsula do not spillover into war, because in a conflict South Korea is extremely vulnerable. They have a vast sprawling capital city with a huge population. It’s easy for South Korea to suffer.
I think the South Koreans are probably quite glad that all the tension has, for the moment, diffused just enough and there will be talks and so on.
But the talks are going to be difficult, no matter what goodwill there is — and I’m not sure that there’s much goodwill. The South Koreans will also look carefully at what the North Koreans are doing with China.
South Koreans hope that China will continue to be a moderating influence, but they will also be concerned about being caught between China and North Korea.
I would think that the South-North talks will go ahead. I have much more faith in that happening. The United States talks are a little more problematic because the signals from Washington continue to be very hardline and not along the lines of calming things down.
James Edward Hoare is Associate Fellow of Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific program. Before retiring from the diplomatic service of the United Kingdom, he was establishing the British Embassy in North Korea.
The interview was conducted by Rodion Ebbighausen.
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