An early August survey conducted by the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) Department of Monetary Forecast and Statistics revealed August’s CPI could hit 7.19 percent, pushed up by rising electricity, hospital, petroleum, gas, food, and education prices. The 6–6.5 percent goal will become an even more daunting challenge requiring the combined efforts of all ministries and departments.
Over 75 percent of surveyed credit organisations said adjusting State-managed commodities will decide how the CPI plays out in the third quarter and 2013 as a whole.
In the opinion of 67.11 percent of survey respondents, loan rates will fall during the third quarter at a rate below 2 percent. After the SBV’s recent June adjustment, most credit organisations hope inter-bank rates will rise by a maximum of 2–3 percent.
The third quarter GDP growth rate is estimated at 5.26 percent and at 5.48 percent for the whole year.
The majority of credit organizations are optimistic about Vietnam’ economic prospects as saying that judged SBV’s monetary policy as reasonable and balanced and urged the SBV to extend it until the end of this year.
They believe inflation will nudge upwards as part of the gradual national economic recovery and business credit promotion. Exchange rates are stable, interest rates continue to fall, and Government support will help ease businesses’ access to capital.