Economic experts have warned that Vietnam’s macro-economy must be controlled with caution as the country faces an uphill task to achieve an economic growth of 5.5 percent, in the context of tough economic conditions both globally and domestically.
In late June, Director General of the General Statistics Office Do Thuc reported positive signs in the national economy in the January-June period, with GDP growth rate registering a quarter-on-quarter increase, while the consumer price index inched up a mere 2.4 percent against December 2012, laying a solid foundation to keep inflation below 8 percent this year.
The trade deficit stood at 1.4 billion USD, equivalent to 2.3 percent of exports.
Head of the Industrial Statistics Department Pham Hong Thuy said though the industrial production index increased by only 5.2 percent in the first half of this year, far lower than the 9.7 percent and 8.9 percent in the same period of 2011 and 2010 respectively, it is a fairly positive sign in the current situation. In addition, the industrial sales index for the manufacturing and processing sector rose 7.5 percent from the same period last year, bringing inventories index to single digit.
Nevertheless, with the 4.9 percent GDP growth in the first half of the year, the country must achieve a growth rate of at least 6 percent in the second half in order to fulfil the goal of 5.5 percent set by the National Assembly. This is expected to be a very tough task.
The UN Economic and Social Council forecast that the world economy could only pick up since 2014. The situation is the same in Vietnam, when the essential goal is to control inflation, stabilize macro-economy and strive for a suitable growth rate.
According to analysts, Vietnam is likely to record an economic growth rate of 5.1 – 5.2 percent this year, lower than the 5.5 percent target. However, what is important is the stability of the economy, laying the foundation for a sustainable economic development over the long haul, not the growth rate, they said.
GSO experts said any economic stimulation move is not necessary at this time. Instead, the Government should seek ways to mobilise social investment and drastically shift the growth model away from capital and labour-intensive industries to the sustainable knowledge-based model, and restructure the entire economy.